NORTH COUNTY — Home prices have hit a record high for the average sales price, according to the latest report from the North San Diego County Realtors.
The group’s April report showed the average sales price for a single-family home topped $1.5 million, which is an increase of 3.4%. Additionally, the median home price is $1.1 million, an increase of 4% over a rolling 12-month period.
Those are good signs for the real estate market in light of interest rates and those homeowners holding firm with interest rates below 4%, said San Diego Association of Governments Principal Economist Naomi Young, who spoke at Thursday’s North County Economic Summit hosted by the San Diego North Economic Development Council at California State University San Marcos.
Young’s presentation, though, analyzed three types of housing — single-family, townhomes and condos. She said the median home price countywide has increased more than 43% since 2020.
While more housing must be built, Young said there is another component to tackle affordability, and those are existing homes.
“The inventory has dropped significantly,” Young explained. “Prior to COVID, the county would average over 6,900 listings per month. We’re now at 3,500. I’ve been making the argument that it has a lot to do with interest rates or mortgage rates. It’s structural at this point. If we want to see home prices to decrease, we’ll need to see a couple of factors out of this, not just build our way out.”
Young sourced the decline in listings from Redfin. She said the data is from January 2015 through December 2019, which had an average of 6,900 listings per month. From January 2021 through December 2024, though, those have been nearly cut in half.
Young also said a significant share of homes are locked in with mortgage rates below 3%. To return to those rates, there must be a “really big” recession, which no one wants, Young said.
Those with 3% rates, which account for one-third of the housing stock, will take decades to turn over, she added. Young said the landscape has changed dramatically due to those rates and to get 52% of households with a qualifying income to purchase a home, interest rates would need to be 3%.
Inside North County
North County Pipeline also analyzed the top 10 most expensive and affordable markets by zip code in the region for a detached home, as reported by Rocket Mortgage.
Of the top 10 most expensive, nine were on or near the coast with Del Mar leading the way at an average price of $2.5 million. Rancho Santa Fe (92067 and 92091) came in second and third with values at $2.3 million and $2.1 million, respectively, followed by Solana Beach ($1.8 million), Encinitas (92024, $1.6 million) and four in Carlsbad — La Costa ($1.5 million), Aviara ($1.45 million), Carlsbad Village ($1.4 million) and Calavera Hills ($1.35 million).
The only non-coastal zip code in the top 10 is in Escondido (92029), where the average came in at $1.3 million.
As for the most affordable, Oceanside claimed the top two spots (92058 and 92057) as those two areas came in at $600,000 and $620,000, respectively. The next two are in Escondido (92026 and 92027) at $650,00 and $670,00, respectively, followed by Fallbrook ($680,000).
The final five include three in Vista (92084 at $700,00, 92083 at $720,000 and 92081 at $760,000) and one each in Oceanside (92056 at $740,000) and San Marcos (92069 at $780,000).
Movement with attached homes favored buyers as the average sales and median sales home prices dropped by 1.4% and 1.8% year-over-year, respectively. The average sales price is $852,825, and the median sales price is $727,000, per the NSDCR report.
The top 10 most expensive areas include Del Mar ($1.2 million), Solana Beach ($1.1 million), Rancho Santa Fe ($1 million), Encinitas $950,000, the four in Carlsbad — Aviara ($900,000), La Costa ($875,000), Carlsbad Village ($850,000) and Calavera Hills ($825,000), Escondido ($800,000) and Poway (92064 at $775,000).
As with detached homes, the ranking for attached homes remains the same with the Oceanside ($500,000 and $525,000), Escondido ($550,000 and $575,000), Fallbrook ($600,000), Vista ($625,000 and $650,000), Oceanside ($675,000), Vista ($700,000) and San Marcos ($725,000).
Other market indicators for detached homes, however, show a 4.8% year-over-year increase in closed sales, an inventory spike of 17.1% and a 20.8% increase in the number of days properties are on the market.
For attached homes, closed sales increased by 3.7%, an inventory increase of 41.3% and months of supply increasing by 40.9%, the NSDCR report shows. Also, the number of days on the market increased by 19%.
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