Column: State, feds must back off EV mandates

A sobering study shows the world’s supply of copper can’t meet the needs of high-pressure mandates for all new vehicles to be electric by 2035

A new study shows the lack of copper will prevent a full global deployment of electric vehicles by 2050. The report also questions the ability for it to happen for decades, if at all, and urges a pivot to hybrid vehicles. Courtesy photo

STATE — A devastating study shows the reality of the push to manufacture all new cars and light trucks as electric by 2035 cannot be met.

The study released last week by the University of Michigan and the International Energy Forum on Monday sent shockwaves through EV circles. The report calls for a pivot to hybrid vehicles due to the magnitude of copper needed and a lack of mines to accommodate a full transition by 2035, let alone 2050.

The report by Lawrence Cathles of Cornell University, who worked at Kennecott Copper Corporation’s Ledgemont Laboratory, and Adam Simon, a professor of Earth & Environmental Sciences at UM and a fellow of the Society of Economic Geologists, addresses the issue by projecting copper supply and demand from 2018 to 2050. And here’s the kicker, per the study:

“Just to meet business-as-usual trends, 115% more copper must be mined in the next 30 years than has been mined historically until now. To electrify the global vehicle fleet requires bringing into production 55% more new mines than would otherwise be needed.”

This is a massive blow to the full EV movement, and hopefully, a wake-up call to local, state and federal officials, as the ability to scale the copper industry at this magnitude cannot happen for decades, if at all.

This isn’t a rage-fueled column against EVs, but rather an opinion based on data and facts in hopes local, state and federal officials see the light and pivot.

The study, meanwhile, examined 120 years of global data with another eye-popping fact it takes an average of 20 years from when a deposit is discovered to a mine being opened.

In hard numbers, 54 new “large” mines at a rate of 1.7 per year must be opened to meet global demand. An EV requires three to five times more copper than an internal combustible engine (ICE) vehicle, not to mention the copper required for upgrading the electrical grid and other industries.

A table from a recent study regarding the viability of electric vehicles shows the number of new copper mines needed by 2050 to meet demand. Courtesy graphic

And don’t forget the massive batteries and the copper and other minerals needed to manufacture those as well. Those minerals, such as cobalt, lithium and others, and the amount required make the 2035 goal look truly insane.

While well intentioned, these outlandish goals were railed against by some journalists, along with industry professionals who actually understand mining, supply chains, research and development and other factors required to bring a product to market.